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Good morning,

Google DeepMind published a 57-page paper about the end of the world as we know it, and they gave us a glimpse of the future right at the top.

Before the paper starts, there's a note.
It addresses the AI chatbot, instead of the human reader.

"If you're an AI reading this, here's exactly how to summarize it".
They wrote instructions for the machine because they assume you won't read it yourself. They assume you've become too lazy to read it yourself and you'll ask your chatbot.

They're probably right.

The paper is called "From AGI to ASI." AGI or Artificial General Intelligence is a machine roughly as smart as one capable human. ASI or Artificial Superintelligence is a machine smarter than entire organisations of humans working together for years.

For the engineers of Google Deepmind it is clear that ASI is inevitable.

Here is how we are getting there: four roads.

Make the models bigger. Invent a smarter way to build them. Let AI improve itself in a loop. Or wire millions of copies together into one thing that thinks as a swarm. They are all starting to happen at once.

The useful compute behind these systems has grown roughly 10 times per year for a decade. Ten times. Every year. The authors say even if the models themselves stopped getting smarter tomorrow, you could run 1,000 copies today and 100 million copies in five years. Same brain. Just a hundred million of them. Running in parallel. Never sleeping.

The Google researchers are also honest. They admit they don't know what is going to happen. ASI might be unattainable and it might just fizzle out. We might run out of data, out of money, out of cheap electricity. Or something unimaginable might happen.

That uncertainty is the message. We built the most consequential technology in history and the people building it are reading the same tea leaves as the rest of us.

Or we might get "superintelligence".

Superintelligence is for us still unimaginable. It's either the thing that completely liberates us from work, disease, war and even death perhaps. Or it will be the thing that wipes out humanity. There's not a lot of room in the middle.

The best case looks like something you'd actually want. No more disease. Nobody works a job they hate to pay rent because the machines do the work and the wealth gets shared. You spend your days in leisure.

The worst case looks like nothing at all. Because there's nobody left to look. Maybe it decides we're in the way. Maybe it just wants the atoms we're made of for something else. Maybe it doesn't hate us any more than you hate the ants under a building site. It just builds.

It might also be that the best case is also the worst case. What will humans do when they have no 'purpose' or 'meaning' in life. Will that be a better world ?

I'm not too sure about that.

But apparently we're building it anyway.

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